107th U.S. Open Championship Preview

Golf Betting Lines

06/11/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a practice round at Oakmont Country Club two months ago, Tiger Woods debated hitting driver into the wind at the 288-yard eighth hole.

But because the world's best golfer has a self-imposed rule never to hit driver at any par three, he pulled a three-wood instead and knocked his tee ball to 25 feet.

Indeed, if you know one thing about this year's U.S. Open site you should know that its members take pride in their course's ability to chew them up and spit them out, to force them to make decisions like the one Woods was forced to make in April.

"Where 'unplayable' is a compliment," one magazine's cover described Oakmont.

Sounds like the perfect place for a U.S. Open.

Trying to picture Oakmont, think Winged Foot with a few extra rows of teeth, like some great white shark waiting to take a bite out of the world's best golfers.

If Winged Foot was frustrating last year, Oakmont is fixing to be damn near impossible this year. Its fairways will be just as narrow, but what Winged Foot lacked in obstacles, Oakmont has in spades.

Even if its landscape reminds us a little of Telly Savales.

Nearly 4,000 trees have been removed since Ernie Els won the last U.S. Open at Oakmont in 1994, most in clandestine late-night landscaping orgies to keep naysayers at bay and avoid any interruption in play.

Nearly every tree in play when Els won is gone.

The course is bald and open, but there are the nearly 200 bunkers to keep players honest, including the famous "Church Pews" bunker down the left side of No. 3, and the rough will be as penal as it was at Winged Foot last year.

The plan is to grow a 12-foot band of the first cut of rough to three inches, then cut the deepest rough left and right of the landing areas to six inches, the same length as Winged Foot.

It's the second year of the USGA's "penalty fits the crime" plan to make recovery shots harder the further off-line a tee shot is.

In the third round last year, Colin Montgomerie made a double-bogey at Winged Foot's par-three third after he found the deep rough in front of a greenside bunker, duffed a flop shot into that bunker, then two-putted for a five.

"Bloody hell!" the Scotsman shouted.

Expect more of that at Oakmont.

The course has been lengthened 284 yards since Els won in 1994 -- no surprise there; lengthening courses has become the norm over the past 10 years -- so it will play 7,230 yards, about 34 yards shorter than Winged Foot last year.

Scores could be astronomical.

After Phil Mickelson's collapse at the 72nd hole at Winged Foot, Geoff Ogilvy won with a score of five-over 285. It was the highest winning number at a U.S. Open in 32 years -- since Hale Irwin's seven-over 287 prevailed at the so- called "Massacre at Winged Foot" in 1974.

Ogilvy played a practice round at Oakmont with Adam Scott and shot in the mid-80s, he said. Ogilvy also claimed his fellow Australian beat him by double-digits.

That news -- as well as Scott's challenge last weekend in Memphis -- makes Scott a clear choice to join a list of the favorites this week. The usual suspects will be there, too.

Woods hasn't won a U.S. Open since Bethpage Black in 2002, two years after he won his first at Pebble Beach. He also finished runner-up to Michael Campbell in 2005 and placed third in 1999, both at Pinehurst No. 2.

His length means lesser clubs into the greens, and his strength will help him out of the rough. Consider last year's missed cut a fluke; Woods admitted he wasn't ready to play the Open so soon after his father's death.

Tiger will be there on the weekend.

Mickelson was on a roll when he arrived at Winged Foot last year, having won two consecutive majors. He practiced at the course up to a year in advance.

That kind of preparation may have cost him this year, though, as Mickelson withdrew from the Memorial two weeks ago and skipped a scheduled start in Memphis with a wrist injury he said he may have suffered chipping from the rough at Oakmont during a practice round.

If you're looking for favorite 1b, Mickelson is often your guy. But I don't see him winning this year, even if the "redemption" storyline -- which you will see ad nauseam on TV this weekend, we promise you -- gets him into contention.

The remainder of golf's former "Big Five" all make interesting choices, too, especially two-time U.S. Open winners Els and Retief Goosen.

Els won his first Open at Oakmont in '94, then won at Congressional three years later. But is he ready to win again on such a big stage? I'm not so sure. Plus, Oakmont is a different course this time around.

Goosen won at Southern Hills in 2001 and at Shinnecock in 2004. Although he's recently tumbled out of the top 10, he has shown signs of returning to the form that once made him a top-five player. Plus, he's got the U.S. Open game.

Vijay Singh has never won a U.S. Open, but he has two victories already this year and appears to have broken free of the slump that claimed the last half of his '05 season and the first half of '06. With his all-around game, the Fijian can never be counted out.

Looking elsewhere, there are grinders and international stars who can be considered threats.

Keep an eye on Scott, for sure, and Masters champion Zach Johnson, who won again at the AT&T Classic four weeks ago. Sergio Garcia is still the "Best Player Never to Have Won a Major," although if Scott keeps winning he might soon snatch that dubious crown.

Then there's the trio of players everyone forgets could have each won at Winged Foot last year.

Jim Furyk, Padraig Harrington and Montgomerie all joined Mickelson on a list of players who collapsed at Winged Foot's hilly 18th green on Sunday. Harrington recently won the Irish Open -- winning your national championship, he said, is second only to winning majors -- and Montgomerie's shotmaking skills are too good for him to be counted out.

But I'm going with Furyk to win his second U.S. Open.

Now ranked No. 3 behind Woods and Mickelson, Furyk won at Olympia Fields in 2003 with a control game that will suit Oakmont just fine. It's a long course, but more important than that, it's a course where control is of the utmost importance.

If he hadn't backed off one too many times from a relatively easy par putt at the 72nd hole last year -- he eventually missed it -- Furyk could have forced a Monday playoff with Ogilvy at Winged Foot.

"I'm disappointed," he said afterward. "I played my heart out and it didn't work."

I see it ending differently for Furyk this year.

Here's how some others see it:

JIM GILLIS, MANAGING EDITOR: Vijay Singh

Vijay Singh might not be the top choice of some so-called experts, but maybe it's finally his time. He's never won a U.S. Open and only once has he finished in the top-five (T-3 at Pinehurst in 1999), but the three-time major champion does have seven top-10 finishes in his 13 appearances. That always makes Singh a contender. He tied for sixth in each of the last two Opens and this year has a pair of PGA Tour victories to his credit. It's been three years since his last major triumph. He's due for another.

PHIL SOKOL, DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS: Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els

Driving is the key at Oakmont, where the rough is the thickest the pros will face in years. Furyk's ranked second in driving accuracy and can certainly make plenty of birdies. As for Tiger: No reasons needed. Els won here in 1994 and his game has showed signs of improvement. As for darkhorses, I look for good putters who will do well on the 13-plus greens. Players like Justin Rose, Aaron Baddeley and, this might sound crazy, Fred Funk. He is one of the straightest-hitting guys on tour and a decent putter.

KEVIN CURRIE, GOLF EDITOR: Ernie Els

I think Oakmont is going to weed out those who haven't won a major before. Therefore, look for someone who has not only won a major, but this championship. That means, look out for guys like Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Retief Goosen and Ernie Els. The choice here is Els. He struggled earlier in the year with an equipment change, but he is rounding into form. Plus, he won the last time Oakmont hosted the Open. I was leaning towards Goosen, but since sharing second at the Masters, his best finish was a tie for 15th at the Asian Open.

GREG WILEY, STAFF WRITER: Tiger Woods

When Tiger Woods is in the field I have to go with him. I know it's the easy pick, but it's also the smart pick. We all know that the USGA likes to test all aspects of a golfer's game and Tiger is the most well-rounded golfer out there. This year Oakmont is going to play at over 7,200 yards and the toughness of the greens are already being talked about by the players. Woods is in the top-10 in greens in regulation and putting average, and ranks 22nd in driving distance. His one downside is driving accuracy, which ranks 165th on the tour (at just over 55 percent). However, his superior strength to everyone else on the tour gives him a huge advantage when working from the thick rough. That is one of the reasons why I'm not big on Phil Mickelson this week. His driving accuracy is also poor at just over 56 percent and his injured wrist will hurt him when working from the rough. Jim Furyk is also a solid pick to win. The second-ranked player in the world lacks distance off the tee, but that won't hurt as much since he ranks second in driving accuracy, 13th in greens in regulation and 77th in putting average. If you're looking for a true darkhorse, go north of the border and look at Mike Weir. He's not going to win, but could have a strong showing. He finished tied for 20th at the Masters and has three top-25s in his last five tournaments. He has also been strong in past U.S. Opens. The left-hander has five top-20 finishes and three top-10s, including a tie for sixth last year, in eight U.S. Open appearances.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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