2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Quarterbacks

NCAA Football Betting Lines

06/23/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They probably get too much credit when things are going good, and too much blame when things aren't. But that's the nature of the quarterback position at every level, and the FBS is certainly no exception.

With that said, here are the top signal-callers heading into the 2010 college football season.

JAKE LOCKER, WASHINGTON

There was a real chance that Locker would have been an early pick in this year's NFL Draft, as the St. Louis Rams, among others, were reported to be extremely high on him. Locker has everything needed to be a cornerstone of a NFL organization for a decade or so, including prototypical size (6-3, 225) and experience in a pro-style offense at WU. He has a quick release and strong arm, with the ability to make things happen with his legs as well. Locker just missed out on a 2,000-yard passing, 1,000-yard rushing campaign in 2007, then rushed for just under 400 yards in 2009, while upping his passing number to the 2,800 range. If he continues to improve as a passer (completed 47.3 percent in 2007, 53.8 percent in abbreviated 2008 campaign and 58.4 percent in 2009), his status in the eyes of scouts will only improve.

RYAN MALLETT, ARKANSAS

He won't run away from anyone, but at 6-7, 238 pounds, Mallett doesn't need to. Mallett transferred from Michigan, where he started as a freshman before exiting after Rich Rodriguez's offense made him obsolete. After sitting out 2008, Mallett earned the starting job last spring and never looked back. He completed a modest 55.8 percent of his passes, but did throw for 3,624 yards, with 30 TDs and just seven interceptions in head coach Bobby Petrino's system. A strong-armed pocket-passer that the pros covet, the junior could certainly feel the gravitational pull of the NFL by mid-season if all goes well.

TERRELLE PRYOR, OHIO STATE

Pryor has been on this list since the day he stepped on the field in Columbus, and perhaps even before. The expectations were so high that it was almost impossible for Pryor to live up to the hype, but the 6-6, 233-pound junior has continued the maturation process within the OSU offense. During the 2009 campaign, the former blue-chipper threw for just over 2,000 yards and 18 TDs, while rushing for 779 yards and seven more scores. Expect more of the same in 2010. He won't lead the nation with gaudy passing numbers, but should be a regular on highlight reels week-in and week-out, as Ohio State will once again be in the hunt for the Big Ten title and factor in the big BCS picture as the season nears a conclusion.

KELLEN MOORE, BOISE STATE

Perhaps the best quarterback in the country, with the least amount of hype. Moore has been a model of consistency since stepping onto the blue turf in Boise a couple of years ago, and has been a major factor in his program crashing the BCS party of late. He lacks ideal size (6-0, 187), but makes up for it with great football instincts, competitive nature and superb leadership skills. In two seasons, Moore has completed over 66 percent of his passes with over 7,000 passing yards, 64 TDs and a mere 13 INTs. With the heightened national profile afforded Boise State this season (the Broncos should be a preseason top-five program), expect to hear plenty from Moore in 2010.

CASE KEENUM, HOUSTON

A product of the system in Houston? Probably, though there is still no denying the impressive nature of the numbers Keenum has put up with the Cougars. The 6-2, 210-pound All-American has led the nation in total offense the last two years, throwing for over 10,000 yards in his sophomore and junior campaigns combined, with 88 TD passes over that span. Keenum threw for a jaw-dropping 5,671 yards a year ago, with a 70 percent completion rate. It's hard to imagine his numbers plummeting this year.

ROBERT GRIFFIN, BAYLOR

The face of Baylor football, there may not be a more athletic QB in this group than Griffin, and that includes Pryor. As a freshman in 2008, the 6-2, 210- pounder threw for 2,091 yards, with 15 TDs and just three INTs, while rushing for 843 yards and 13 more scores, en route to All-American honors. He lasted just two-plus games into his sophomore season before being lost for the year with a knee injury, and will have to prove that he can recover his reputation as one of the fastest QBs in college football history. A hardship waiver got Griffin's sophomore year back, and in even better news, he participated in all non-contact drills in the spring.

JACORY HARRIS, MIAMI-FLORIDA

After showing flashes of brilliance as a freshman in 2008, Harris took it to another level as a sophomore last year, his first as the full-time starter. Harris completed around 60 percent of his passes, for 3,352 yards and 24 TDs, emerging as the face of the Hurricanes offense. Harris and the Canes will try to take another step forward this season in their hoped-for return to college football elite status. For his part, you can expect another jump in terms of production from the athletic Harris, as Miami pursues an ACC title in 2010.

COLIN KAEPERNICK, NEVADA

Yet another quarterback from a non-BCS program that can do a little bit of everything. With great size (6-6, 220) and extreme athleticism, Kaepernick has been a big fish in the small pond that is the WAC. Last season, the Wolf Pack's field-general passed for over 2,000 yards with 20 TD passes, while eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing (1,183), with an additional 16 scores. There isn't a whole lot of national attention lavished on the Nevada program, but Kaepernick may change that in 2010. Expect to see plenty of good things from the signal-caller in Reno this season.

LANDRY JONES, OKLAHOMA

Thrown into the toughest of situations a year ago, when Heisman-winner Sam Bradford went down with a shoulder injury, Jones actually performed admirably as a freshman in Norman. Named the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, the 6-2, 210-pounder completed almost 60 percent of his passes, for 3,198 yards, with 26 TDs. The Sooners struggled to an 8-5 record, but it was difficult to pin those struggles on Jones, who seemed to improve with each passing week. With a strong arm and a nice feel for the game, expect inflated numbers from Jones this season, as OU becomes relevant in the big picture again.

JERROD JOHNSON, TEXAS A&M

Johnson already holds numerous single-season passing records at Texas A&M, and heads into his senior season looking to climb the career charts as well. With attention-grabbing 6-5, 243-pound size, Johnson is coming off a stellar season in which he completed almost 60 percent of his passes, for 3,579 yards and 30 TDs, while adding another 500 yards on the ground and eight more TDs. If the Aggies are going to make a move in the Big 12 this year, the talented Johnson will be the main reason why.

OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: John Brantley (Florida), Cameron Newton (Auburn), Zach Collaros (Cincinnati), Christian Ponder (Florida State), Andy Dalton (TCU), Matt Barkley (USC), Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech).

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.