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07/12/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There have been plenty of storylines to keep us busy during the first half of the American League schedule, and a number of surprising ones at that.
From the travels of Cliff Lee to the exploits of Robinson Cano and Miguel Cabrera and the firing of two managers, the first half has provided its share of water-cooler talk.
Lee, who is becoming something of a modern-day mercenary, was traded to the AL West-leading Rangers on Friday in a move that they hope will keep them atop the division standings.
The Dave Trembley and Trey Hillman eras are over in Baltimore and Kansas City, respectively, and the teams at the top of the won-loss columns in the East and Central are already in dogfights that should last well into the summer. Boston and Tampa Bay are making it tough on New York in the AL East, and as usual, the Central Division is up for grabs among the White Sox, Tigers and Twins.
With the 81st annual All-Star Game upon us, here's a look at how the American League stacks up so far, with grades provided for each club.
DON'T MESS WITH TEXAS...OR NEW YORK OR TAMPA BAY
Texas Rangers - Things did not look good for the Rangers when it was revealed during spring training that manager Ron Washington tested positive for cocaine during the 2009 season. But, after Washington apologized for his poor decision and was permitted to remain in place, the Rangers rallied around their manager and began making a big run at an AL West title. A strong first half from Josh Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero stood out on Texas' productive offense, which also includes star infielder Michael Young. Pitching could have been better, though. Youngster C.J. Lewis has had his moments, but Rich Harden has been softer than a TCBY smoothie. Still, the acquisition of Lee gives the Rangers a shot at a playoff run, much like he did with Philadelphia.
Grade: A-
New York Yankees - There's not much to criticize about the defending World Series champions, but CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte can't do it all by themselves on the mound. A.J. Burnett seems lost in space, and Phil Hughes still has some things to work on even though he owns double-digit wins. The bullpen could also use some help, and future Hall of Fame closer Mariano Rivera isn't getting any younger. One of the top fielding teams in the major leagues, the Yankees have two MVP candidates in Alex Rodriguez and the red-hot Cano.
Grade: A
Tampa Bay Rays - Two years removed from their improbable run to the World Series, the Rays have proven they can hang with the Yankees in the American League Division. Manager Joe Maddon has one of the strongest pitching staffs in the major leagues with David Price, Matt Garza and James Shields highlighting the rotation. Despite his high average, Carl Crawford hasn't been as consistent as in the past, and B.J. Upton is definitely struggling. Evan Longoria can't do it all, and let Upton know as much during a well-publicized dugout confrontation between the two earlier this season. If Tampa had slick-fielding players like the Yankees, perhaps it would be looking down on the rest of the AL East. Be sure to catch what the Rays do in the second half of the season.
Grade: A-
THESE GUYS ARE GOOD, BUT STILL NEED WORK
Boston Red Sox - The injury bug made its way through the Boston clubhouse and a few key players were left licking their wounds. Hitters Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Lowell, Victor Martinez, Dustin Pedroia and Jason Varitek were all shelved at some point. It almost seems that the entire pitching staff, both starters and relievers, has been disabled ever since ace Josh Beckett and emerging star Clay Buchholz landed on the infirmary list. Injuries aside, however, Terry Francona has kept this ailing ballclub in the hunt for another division title with help from other spots. Jon Lester is still one of the best pitchers in the Junior Circuit and Jonathan Papelbon is nearly unstoppable when he's on point. Kevin Youkilis is battling an ankle problem but it hasn't stopped him from being one of the team leaders in homers and RBI. Even David Ortiz has shed the batting albatross, and Adrian Beltre is enjoying a solid season in New England.
Grade: B-
Detroit Tigers - Two players have single-handedly lifted the spirits of baseball fans in Motown with their consistent effort and production on the field. Legendary manager Jim Leyland would be in a world of hurt were it not for starting pitcher Justin Verlander and slugger Cabrera. Cabrera is a Triple Crown candidate, while Verlander's flame-throwing right arm has him near the top of every major pitching category. Leyland's club has one of the best overall batting averages in the majors, but the pitching staff -- minus Verlander -- could use help at the trade deadline. Rick Porcello, Jeremy Bonderman and Max Scherzer have fared no better than Triple-A starters in 2010. It didn't help losing hard-throwing reliever Joel Zumaya to an elbow injury, considering the Tigers are in the hunt for an AL Central crown.
Grade: B+
Chicago White Sox - The Pale Hose are in the same boat as Detroit and are also in the running for a division title. Starting pitcher Jake Peavy was leading the staff in strikeouts, but was recently placed on the disabled list with a lat and shoulder ailment. Mark Buehrle and John Danks are expected to pick up the slack until Peavy returns, but the biggest surprise has been right-hander Freddy Garcia. Garcia seems reborn this season and leads the team in wins. As usual, Paul Konerko is leading the team in homers and RBI, while Carlos Quentin has served as his sidekick. Much like Garcia on the mound, veteran outfielder Andruw Jones has come to life under fiery manager Ozzie Guillen. Guillen has a decent bullpen too, with big Bobby Jenks serving as the team's closer in a bullpen with an ERA lower than 4.00.
Grade: C+
LA Angels of Anaheim - Had Kendry Morales not been hurt during a post-game celebration, the Angels would have been with the A-class. The loss of Morales was a tremendous one, and now all the attention rests on the broad shoulders of outfielder Torii Hunter. Hunter leads the team in most offensive categories, but Mike Napoli is also enjoying a solid campaign and both Hideki Matsui and Juan Rivera have been productive counterparts. LA's fielding and pitching are both among the worst in the league. That's too bad for the Halos in their battle with Texas for AL West supremacy. On paper, the Angels have an elite rotation with the likes of Ervin Santana, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders and Scott Kazmir toeing the rubber, but now have to deal with Lee on the Texas staff. Unlikely starter Joel Pineiro currently leads the team in wins. After averaging nearly 17 wins over the past two seasons, Saunders is still trying to reach double digits in victories this season.
Grade: B-
Minnesota Twins - With a rotation easily comparable to the Angels, the Twins will have to punch their ticket to the postseason with their bats. Carl Pavano, Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano have done a decent job so far, but this group of guys will have a hard time carrying the load towards the end of the season. Minnesota's ERA is in the middle of the pack, while its bullpen is one of the best in the major leagues. The Twins have a low ERA in the bullpen, with Jon Rauch serving as full-time closer for injured righty Joe Nathan. Nathan's loss was certainly huge, and the team hopes Rauch can hold up in the stretch run. All-Star Justin Morneau has been his usual impressive self, but Joe Mauer has been plagued by injuries. Outfielder/DH Jason Kubel and outfielder Delmon Young have picked up the slack, and so has future Hall of Fame slugger Jim Thome. Thome is enjoying his first season in the Twin Cities, as he is on pace for a fifth consecutive 20-home run year.
Grade: C
RUNNING ON FUMES
Toronto Blue Jays - It's been rough for the Blue Jays and their fans since they won those World Series titles back in 1992 and 1993, as the Jays' last playoff moment was Joe Carter's legendary home run. The mediocrity will likely continue for years to come, but at least there are a few players who can provide hope. Jose Bautista has the biggest surprise with his 24 home runs, while sluggers Vernon Wells and Alex Gonzalez have shown some longball proficiency as well. Wells has been the most consistent Blue Jay since the club's days of grace in the early 1990s, but is also injury-prone. Catcher John Buck even earned an All-Star nod this season and has a fielding percentage near 1.000. Toronto has a steady group of young pitchers in Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil and Ricky Romero, but none of them have 10 or more wins. Romero is the best bet for reaching that mark first. Surprisingly, Toronto has had one of the top infields with second baseman Aaron Hill and Lyle Overbay leading the way and the veteran Gonzalez also serving as a credit to the cause.
Grade: C
Oakland Athletics - The only highlight of 2010 that belongs to the Oakland Athletics is the perfect game Dallas Braden tossed on Mother's Day. Braden has been awful since, and is currently on the disabled list. Fortunately there are other young arms in the rotation that will give Oakland something to smile about in the future. Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Vin Mazzaro all have the potential to last as long in the league as A's veteran Ben Sheets. However, like most pitchers who switch leagues, Sheets is having a rough time adjusting to the AL. Oakland does have a decent earned run average overall, but its offense isn't much to write home about. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ryan Sweeney and Kurt Suzuki are the best manager Bob Geren has to offer. Oakland still has something of a chance in the West at 7 1/2 games off the pace, though if the A's fall out of contention, Geren may not last long to see these youngsters thrive at the major league level.
Grade: C-
Kansas City Royals - Even though Kansas City seems to be a team on the rise, it still has some areas of concern. The rotation is below-average at best behind reigning AL Cy Young Award recipient Zack Greinke, and he's not even pitching that well. The Royals can't honestly believe they will have a competitive rotation with Brian Bannister, Bruce Chen, Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar rounding things out. Kansas City has one of the worst ERA's in the game, but its bullpen is somewhat decent with All-Star closer Joakim Soria doing his best Mariano Rivera impression. Interim manager Ned Yost's job is secure for now thanks to great hitting and a team batting average near .300, though newcomer Rick Ankiel is sidelined with a leg injury and slugger Jose Guillen has been bothered by a strained quadriceps. Guillen leads the team in homers and RBI, and has been a solid veteran presence to his teammates. Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo, David DeJesus, Yuniesky Betancourt and Scott Podsednik could make this team a playoff contender in a few years. As for now, there's too much competition in the Central to even give KC a legitimate shot.
Grade: D-
BAGS ALREADY PACKED FOR VACATION
Baltimore Orioles - The Dave Trembley era ended earlier this season, and for good reason. The Orioles pulled the plug on him after a 15-39 start, and replaced him with interim manager Juan Samuel. The move hasn't made much of a difference, and Baltimore (14-20 under Samuel) is still struggling both on the mound and at the plate despite all of the young prospects. Baltimore is near the bottom of the barrel in starting pitching and relief, and it didn't help when starter Kevin Millwood landed on the disabled list with a strained right forearm. It won't be that much of a loss since Millwood owns just two wins in 2010. David Hernandez, Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen are solid arms to build around, but some quality veteran arms would help too. Veteran Jeremy Guthrie is one of those veterans, but he also has a less-than-desirable record and ERA. Adam Jones is a stud, so the Orioles are good in center field. All-star Ty Wigginton is enjoying a good season as well, though it hurt the team when Luke Scott went down with a hamstring injury. Baltimore still hasn't lost hope on stud catcher Matt Wieters.
Grade: F
Cleveland Indians - The Indians are last in the competitive Central -- five games back of the Royals -- and are rated in the mid-to-late 20s in every major category. Their bullpen is one of the worst with Kerry Wood handling closing duties. Chris Perez is no better, but has plenty more appearances this season. The bullpen is definitely a major concern, and the same goes for the rotation. Mitch Talbot, Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook should have more wins than they currently own. All three can relate to the bullpen's woes. One would believe Cleveland is stacked offensively with Shin-Soo Choo, new addition Russell Branyan, Jhonny Peralta and Grady Sizemore on the roster. Peralta is struggling and Sizemore is injured, making matters worse as the team heads into the second half.
Grade: D
Seattle Mariners - The Mariners have been one of the biggest disappointments this season, given their aggressive offseason approach. The ballclub landed star lefty Lee to team up with Felix Hernandez, third baseman Chone Figgins and outfielder Milton Bradley in the offseason, but all it has produced is a last- place tag in the American League West. Lee spent the start of the season on the disabled list and has been lights-out ever since. Now he'll take his talents down south to Texas. The rest of the Seattle rotation hasn't lived up to the hype with such hurlers as Jason Vargas, Ryan Rowland-Smith and Doug Fister. The hitting has been much worse, but never count out Ichiro Suzuki. Suzuki is a hit machine and is surrounded by average hitters in Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Lopez and Mike Sweeney. Bradley and Gutierrez are the big hitters in Don Wakamatsu's lineup and hope to beef up their numbers after the All-Star break.
Grade: D
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Kurt Warner to start, Matt Leinart to watch
Despite the debate that's swirling , Kurt Warner will remain the starting quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals, coach Dennis Green said today. The Arizona Cardinals are the +7 point underdog at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com for this Sunday's game.
Green's comment came in a statement released by the team following an ESPN report that Green decided that rookie Matt Leinart would replace Warner as starter for Sunday's game at Atlanta.
"Generally talking about the starting lineup is not something we do," Green told the AP. "However, given the speculation that was out there we want to make it clear. We're disappointed after last week, but we still expect to be a playoff football team and we fully expect Kurt Warner to be the quarterback that leads us. That has not changed."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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