Bayern's Altintop to play key role against Inter

Soccer Betting Lines

05/20/2010 - Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich's Hamit Altintop has sat on the bench a lot this season, going unused in more than 20 matches, but don't look for him there Saturday in the Champions League final against Inter Milan.

Coach Louis van Gaal left the Turkey international on the bench for the entire match 15 times during a 22-game span at one point this season.

Altintop made just start one after the winter break until late March, when he was thrust back into an important role in the Champions League.

Van Gaal used Altintop in the first game of the Champions League quarterfinals against Manchester United with Dutch winger Arjen Robben out. Altintop was on the field against Schalke a few days later as well, but went back to the bench and even went unused in the ensuing weeks.

Altintop continued to play his role on the Bundesliga and Pokal Cup champions without causing a problem, and replaced suspended winger Franck Ribery against Lyon in the second leg of the Champions League semifinals.

Bayern, with Altintop playing a big role, won the second leg 3-0 in France to seal the series on aggregate 4-0.

With Ribery also suspended for the final, Van Gaal's obvious choice is to hand Altintop another start Saturday at the Bernabeu in Madrid at 2:45 p.m. (ET).

"Hamit has shown what he can do," Robben, who leads the club with 23 goals in all competitions, said on the team's website.

Altintop has 12 starts this season and has come off the bench 13 times, but in France a few weeks ago played his best match of the season. He assisted on one of Ivica Olic's three goals, and was involved all over the pitch.

Although Altintop has played a quieter role this season, he joked "I've always been around, even if you weren't aware of it." Although he has just one goal - in the Pokal Cup - he is a better defensive player than Ribery and can also be a weapon in the attack.

Altintop will try to compensate for Ribery's absence again, this time against a Jose-Mourinho led Inter side that disposed of defending champion Barcelona in the semifinals.

Bayern advanced to the final the hard way, losing 3-2 in the second leg of its Round of 16 series against Fiorentina and quarterfinal clash against United to advance on away goals following 4-4 aggregate draws.

Although Bayern rolled past Lyon, which knocked out Real Madrid earlier in the tournament, Inter Milan provides an even tougher challenge. With the exception of Ribery, though, Van Gaal has his first-choice lineup.

If Altintop, who played a great Euro 2008 tournament for Turkey, plays another game like he did against Lyon - he should have space to roam with Inter sure to focus on Robben - Van Gaal and Bayern won't feel Ribery's loss as much.

Bayern is searching for its fifth Champions League title, with its last win in 2001 against Valencia. Bayern also won three straight from 1974-76.

Inter also has to compensate for a banned player, with influential midfielder Thiago Motta suspended for the final. Inter is vying for its third Champions League crown, and first in 45 years. Inter won in 1964 and 1965.

Mourinho's plan to replace Motta won't be known until his squad gets onto the field, but the presence of Wesley Sneijder - who like Robben was sold by Real Madrid last summer - will go a long way again for the Italian champions.

Bayern and Inter have met four previous times in European play, with Bayern on top with two wins and a draw. The teams last played in the 2006-07 Champions League, when the teams tied the first leg 1-1 in Munich and Bayern won 2-0 in Italy in the group stage.

That was before Van Gaal and Mourinho arrived at their current clubs. Van Gaal and Mourinho have both won the Champions League before, Van Gaal with Ajax in 1995 and Mourinho with FC Porto in 2004.

Van Gaal was a mentor for Mourinho, widely regarded as one of the best coach's in the world, when he was head man at Barcelona and Mourinho was an assistant. Saturday's final will prove if the teacher is smarter than the student.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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