Valencia, Twins stay hot in rout of Royals

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danny Valencia knocked in three and collected four more hits while Carl Pavano turned in his eighth consecutive winning decision in an 11-2 Twins victory over Kansas City.

Valencia was coming off a 4-for-4 performance in Monday's 19-1 shellacking of the Royals and is 8-for-9 in the series. Joe Mauer, who was 5-for-5 with a career-high seven RBI on Monday, drove in another two runs with two hits in the middle test to this three-game set.

J.J. Hardy hit a solo home run and added a run-scoring single amid a three-hit game and Michael Cuddyer added three hits and two RBI to the win, Minnesota's fourth straight and sixth in the last seven games.

The Twins have racked up 47 runs and 72 hits over their current four-game torrent and reached double-digit runs for the third straight game. Over the last seven games, Minnesota has outscored the competition 60-12.

Pavano (13-6), meanwhile, reached 98 pitches in five innings, but held the Royals to five hits and a run over that time to stretch an unbeaten streak to 10 starts dating back to June 9. The Twins have gone 9-1 in those games.

Bruce Chen (5-5) was knocked around for 11 hits and six runs in 5 1/3 innings to take the loss, Kansas City's fifth in six games. Scott Podsednik had two hits and drove in a run, extending his hitting streak to 14 games.

Minnesota paced itself in the early going with a mere four runs in the first three innings. Cuddyer chased home Mauer with a two-out single and Valencia did the same to score Delmon Young in the game's first frame.

Valencia and Hardy had back-to-back RBI singles with one out in the third for a 4-0 margin. Jose Guillen interrupted the visitors' scoring with a sacrifice fly in the fifth, but the Twins were right back at it in their next at-bat. Jason Repko singled in Drew Butera and Mauer added a sac fly in the sixth after Kyle Farnsworth took over for Chen.

Podsednik knocked in Alex Gordon with a two-out hit in the bottom half, but Hardy blasted a home run off Robinson Tejeda in the seventh to erase the run and make it 7-2.

Minnesota tacked on four more in the eighth as Mauer, Young, Cuddyer and Valencia strung together consecutive two-out RBI hits off Victor Marte.

Game Notes

The Twins had 19 hits Tuesday a night after tying their season high with 20. Young had two hits and scored three runs...Minnesota improved to 9-3 since the All-Star break...Pavano walked three and struck out two. He had pitched into the seventh inning in each of his previous 12 trips to the mound. The veteran right-hander has also won five straight decisions on the road, where he's compiled a 7-3 record in 11 starts thus far in 2010. It was Pavano's fourth overall matchup with the Royals this season, as he improved to 3-1 in 2010 and 7-5 in 13 lifetime games (12 starts) against them...The Twins have won eight of 10 versus the Royals this year, as well as 16 of the last 20 overall meetings between the teams. Minnesota is also 18-5 at Kauffman Stadium since the start of the 2008 season.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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